04 January 2022
What does a forecast tell you? When you see a prediction, how do you interpret it?
If you simulate the future, you may get a familiar-looking graph like this:
But what if we kept simulating the future? What other results could we expect to see? After all, like a parallel universe, one small change could lead to many other branching possibilities…
…and the possibilities can get chaotic very quickly
So how can we make sense of this? Well, with a statistical view of forecasts, we understand that there is a range of possibilities, but as the branches twist and overlap, some events stand out above the rest: